Why our money’s on Up for Review to win the 2019 Grand National
It’s Grand National weekend again, which means it’s time for us to use some ever-so-slightly spurious behavioural science to help you choose a horse that’s been underrated by the bookies.
It works like this: imagine there are two horses in the race. One’s called The Winner, the other’s called The Loser. The first horse is likely to attract more bets, even though the name won’t make it a better horse. So if you’re a savvy gambler, you’ll back The Loser. Better odds, equal chance of winning.
The difference here is there are 40 horses in the race. So we’ve got to get a bit creative about how we rule them out. Let’s get started.
The horse that won last year will definitely be overrated. So that’s first to go:
Horses with names that suggest speed, strength, superpowers or victory will be overrated too. So they’re gone too:
Bless the Wings
Magic of Light
Names that sound authoritative are out too:
Ramses de Teillee
Blue’s the UK’s favourite colour, so all the blue shirts have to go:
Rock the Kasbah
Walk In the Mill
Just a Par
Jockeys with stars on their shirts too (because only good things have stars):
One for Arthur
A Toi Phil
Tea for Two
Blow by Blow
Vieux Lion Rouge
You might have heard of these, but that doesn’t mean they’re likely to win:
Place names and people’s names will get more attention than they deserve too:
This has to go because everyone’s got it dangling from the windowsill in the kitchen:
Which leaves these poor, overlooked runners:
Lake View Lad
Up for Review
And out of those, our money’s on Up for Review. The ideal name for downplaying expectations. And at 25-1 as we write, a pretty good bet too.